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New decisive elections in Colombia

like four years ago Colombia It is again on the brink of a decisive election that could mark changing times, depending on which side a coin flips in the air. Because in the end, while polls continue to show Gustavo Petrotro clearly winning in the first round, anything can happen and we’ll have to wait until Sunday night, May 29 to find out if he can achieve greatness goal of his life, to become Colombia’s next president. To do this, you need to reach 50% plus one vote and declare yourself the winner.

If this goal is not met, uncertainty will continue to shape the country’s immediate future, which will have to be postponed until three weeks later, on Sunday 19 June. The second round will take place that day, when it will finally be known what awaits Colombia and the Colombians. So what are the options in such a complex and unique situation?

Petro could have won in the first round, but according to the latest survey, he will be 5 to 10 points behind, which is a considerable number.Achieving this goal basically depends on willing to change Colombian society and reject candidate petro. If the first variable works in his favour, the second variable could cost him yet another election.

In this calculation, the prevailing judgment of the political class played a decisive role, and it is strange that Petro is now trying to distance himself from that judgment, as well as the concentrated anger at corruption and mismanagement. Paradoxically, however, throughout his life, including during the M-19 guerrilla, the current senator and former mayor of Bogota has lived in “traditional” politics and was a visible member of the Colombian elite, despite his current This is denied for electoral convenience.

If your presentation appeals to rather than worries many undecided people, your options may increase. Picking Francia Márquez as a vice presidential candidate was no easy feat, let alone. The enthusiasm the social leader engenders with youth is undeniable, but her overtly confrontational words are inappropriate at such a moment. If Petro doesn’t win next Sunday, he will have to wait until June, which means more difficulties. But if it does, it will gain broad origin legitimacy that will give its reform projects a big boost, even those that disrupt the traditional order.

Another important question that must be clarified in the first round is who will accompany Petro in the match if the second round should take place.Again, according to the latest opinion polls, the most likely choice is Federico, the former mayor of Medellin. Fico Center-right candidate Gutierrez. In recent days, however, expectations have continued to grow significantly from Bucaramanga’s independent former mayor, Rodolfo Hernández, thanks to his powerful anti-corruption speeches. Whoever the second is, everything points to a repeat of the phenomenon that led Iván Duque to the Casa de Nariño, an informal but effective rally against Petro’s Rally.

Demoscopic research predicts a very tense finish in the second round. If the gap is very small, it should not preclude charges of fraud from the failed candidacy, whatever that may be. Some of this already happened in the legislative elections last March, when complaints by Álvaro Uribe and Petro himself were not exactly exemplary and opened the door to new problems that eroded the electoral machinery itself.

The Petro’s defeat would not only lead to street protests raising concerns of vote manipulation, but would also lead to a period of continued political and institutional instability in the weeks/months to follow. Not to forget the strange theory put forward by Petro, who recently condemned the possible cancellation of elections, which is difficult to implement. In fact, if such a thing were to happen, it would directly amount to a coup d’état. In a recent essay, Colombian author Carlos Granés warned politicians that they do not want to govern but to change history, that is, for future generations. Gustavo Petro made his point powerfully with these words in one of his final campaign campaigns: “On Sunday, we will change the history of Colombia.” Here’s what the country faces The most popular candidates want to brush shoulders with the recent past and try to change everything from the top down, starting with the Constitution, forgetting about the institutions necessary to keep a democracy functioning, like the separation of powers and justice.


Colombian flag of Bogota. Photo: Reg Natarajan (CC BY 2.0).

 

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