The window of opportunity that opened last spring has closed again, dashing hopes of a new nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 bloc (China, US, France, UK and Russia). , plus Germany). This is bad news.
Joe Biden’s America is still setting the tone to this day, but he missed a fresh chance to reverse the wrong course in May 2018, when Donald Trump decided to withdraw from the pact despite the International Energy ) The Association of Atomic Energy Agencies (IAEA) confirmed that Iran strictly abides by the commitments made within the framework of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed in July 2015. True, along the way it has been dropping draconian conditions that were not in the original agreement — such as non-interference in the internal affairs of its neighbors or the end of Iran’s missile program — but essentially it can be interpreted as It would rather avoid problems if it ignored the message from Israel — a staunch opponent of the deal — and calculated that a possible understanding with Tehran would mean more electoral ammunition for Republican opponents in the elections just held.
For its part, Iran, too, seems to have concluded that it can accept its punishment — sanctions and its status as an international pariah — without compromising on issues it cannot abandon without huge internal costs. It has less to do with renewed social unrest after Mahsa Amini’s death on Sept. 16 than with the price of Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ categorical refusal to broker a deal without Washington’s prior abandonment of removing it from the list of terrorist organizations. It can be seen that, on the first front, the problem of maintaining social tranquility has only increased for the theocracy; however, despite the fact that hundreds of people have died and thousands have been detained, including sentenced to death for their participation in the mobilization that continues in many Iranian cities , but the Ali Khamenei-Ibrahim Raisi Federation believes it is capable of resisting, at least until the 2024 US elections, while China continues to present itself as a not insignificant economic and political relief way (it is estimated to buy a total of 700,000 barrels of oil per day).
In the clearest sign that Trump’s decision and Israeli pressure have not led to any improvement in the situation affecting Iran’s disputed nuclear program, as of Aug. 21, the International Atomic Energy Agency estimated Tehran had 55.6 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent and 331.9 kg concentrated to 20%, when it should have nothing.Likewise, it has accumulated 3,621.3 kilograms of enriched uranium at 3.67 percent, which PAIC only allows stock 300 kg max. All of this using IR-5 and IR-6 centrifuges, knowing that PAIC only allows it to run the first generation IR-1. All of this means that Iran already has enough material to build a variety of nuclear weapons, and if it could enrich it to 90%, it would greatly reduce the time it would take to cross the nuclear threshold – some sources say just a few days, Other sources put it as high as six months. On top of that, the IAEA has been losing its ability to verify compliance with the provisions of the NPT, to which Iran is a signatory, even though it is no longer subject to the more intrusive conditions envisioned in the additional protocol.
The sense that Iran is no longer waiting for any deal that would allow it to reintegrate into the international arena has been reinforced by its recent behavior both internally and externally. First, he once again demonstrated his willingness to suppress protests with violence, aware of the high level of popular dissatisfaction with a severe deterioration in living conditions, with inflation already exceeding 50%, a significant devaluation of the rial and growth by the end of the year, according to the IMF. Estimated to be only 3%. Second, it suffices to mention the weapons supplied to Russia, including the Shahed-136 and Mohajer-6 suicide drones heavily used by Moscow, and the planned Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar ballistic missiles; knowing that this is a violation of the UN Security Council Resolution 2231.
In short, everything points to Iran continuing to ramp up its nuclear program, approaching the unpopular point of becoming the tenth largest nuclear potential on Earth. At the same time, it’s hard to imagine the US finally acknowledging its former president’s mistakes, let alone exploring a return to the negotiating table. Likewise, Israel and some of the Arab capitals that are increasingly allied with Tel Aviv are indeed passively participating in a process that affects their vital interests. All this is known is that there is no military solution to get back to square one when Iran is a Western partner.
IMAGE: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei meets with organizers and officials of the Hajj organization in Iran in 2018. Photo: Author unknown, Khamenei.ir (Wikimedia Commons/CC BY 4.0).